Predicting the density and abundance of white-tailed deer based on ecological niche theory

Abstract
Based on the theory of ecological niche modeling, a novel approach known as the Distance to the Niche Centroid (DNC) method was recently proposed for mapping the abundance/density of species. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present the application of DNC, to predict white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus distribution, density and population size in the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve (TCBR), Mexico. Using a distribution map based on occurrence data, estimation of DNC, and regression analysis between DNC and 14 independent sites containing local density information pertaining to this species from 2010 to 2011, we generated a map of the potential distribution of white-tailed deer density in the 4,906 km2 that comprise the TCBR. Abundance (total number of deer) in the TCBR was calculated using both field estimations and the predicted map of density. We briefly discuss some biological, management and conservation implications of this novel conceptual and methodological approach.
Informes Dr. Salvador Mandujano